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Super El Niño explained: why Kansas City could see a warmer, wetter winter

A Super El Niño is an unusually strong warm phase of El Niño, when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific become dramatically warmer than normal. The “super” label is typically used when those temperatures reach around 2 degrees Celsius or more for several consecutive months. This pattern is tied to changes not only in ocean temperatures but also in atmospheric air currents above the Pacific.

Warm ocean waves blending into winter clouds over a city with mixed rain and snow.

KMBC 9 explains that the biggest weather influence is often felt in winter. Historically, Super El Niño years are associated with higher chances of warmer-than-normal conditions and above-normal precipitation for the Midwest and Kansas City. That does not rule out Arctic outbreaks or major snowstorms, but it means the odds tend to tilt toward overall warmer and wetter outcomes (rain, ice, or snow) compared with other ENSO phases.

The article also points to measurable Midwest winter examples. Kansas City averages about 18–19 inches of snow annually, while the winter of 1982–1983 brought 23.4 inches, 1997–1998 brought 19.6 inches, and 2015–2016 brought 5.9 inches. The type of precipitation has varied, influenced by temperature patterns across the region.

Even with ENSO signals, forecasters can still face “curveballs” that shift temperatures and precipitation in unexpected directions, sometimes close to the season itself.